In the Russian reality payment services on the Internet is not a business. At least in its classical form. Without additional options and services almost all the players in this market are doomed to a quick death. Only the largest will survive — Yandex.The cashier may, Qiwi and Bank services.
Gross margin transactional business microscopic — in order to have a profitable business, earning only commissions from payments in the Internet, you need to have a turnover of about 5 billion rubles per month. No payment service is unable a turn to generate, simply because all their customers — a trifle. Lets say I open an online store and set yourself Yandex.Cash a very high interest rate. The turnover of the store begins to grow, I come in “Yandex” and please set the rate lower, then another lower.
When turnover reaches 50-100 million a month, I start to think — why do I need these aggregators if I can get processing directly from the Bank. Im going in “Sberbank”, which offers me the payments at the best rate. Even if I then come back in Yandex and ask. “Give processing by 1.8%?”, they will say “Yes, we do transfer money at 1.8%, the us which in the zero to work?”.
So all big business, reaching a decent speed, moves to direct the processing from banks. Payment services remain small players, earning almost impossible. Monthly turnover of Yandex.Cash” — about 1.7 billion rubles, “ROBOKASSA” — 1.5 billion, RBK Money — 1.5 billion. If we summarize the entire turnover of all payment services, maybe you will run across 20 billion per month.
Therefore, the market can stay and earn only two or three large players who consolidate all this money. Remember Rapida. Once it was a strong processing system, recently bought Qiwi — where now Rapid. Now the problems started many other players.
Even Webmoney, I think, will not survive. Small payment services should think about in order to sold. We regularly make offers to buy different players from the market, but they refuse — I think that they underestimate. My prediction — you will wait that will be closed for free.
If you have a small payment service — sell your business now, something you earn. The future of the payments market — banking services and diversification. The Russian market can focus on two models of development of payment services — us (PayPal) or Chinese (AliPay). I believe that the Chinese model is much closer for us.
In the United States pay good money for a fee — all because of the huge momentum of cashless payments in Internet shops. The part of payment upon receipt — 0%. All make payment if something goes wrong, then the money will return. In Russia absolutely other mentality.
We have 80% of purchases are paid upon completion. This is unlikely to change soon, so count on the turnover growth of online payments, I would not. And even in the US, with the huge market volume and more than us, loyalty to FINTECH startups, feel good the two largest players — PayPal and Stripe. In principle, why trust your money to some unknown start-UPS, when there is PayPal and Stripe.
In any market in the sphere of payments the winner is the one who has a strong brand. The Chinese have gone way different from American. Their AliPay is not just a payment service. In their application people order taxis, food and even get to know each other.
On most smartphones the AliPay app is preinstalled, if not, then it is in the top 3 apps that put the user immediately after purchasing the phone. The application AliPay 750 million units just in China of 1.4 billion people. Subtract children and the elderly, it turns out that the app is almost everyone on the phone. Why do we need a smartphone that does not have AliPay.
Such a scheme of payment service allows you to earn loyalty, bring new clients in the Internet-shops, cafes and restaurants, delivery services, retail outlets. And here you already pay is 2-3%, as in the simple reception of the payment, and 15-20% from the first check. Alipay not only increase significantly its gross margin for additional services, but goes beyond the online, unlike PayPal and Stripe. We have chosen a model of development AliPay and do not intend to focus only on the payments and only online, we will gradually add various additional services in PayQR.
Banks in Russia, too, will develop their own payment services. Even though they repudiate that and say that payments through the Internet is not their business. Who needs the app “savings Bank” or “Alfa-Bank” just because. But if through it you can conveniently pay for your purchase in the online store or even buy coffee at the offline point via NFC then it makes sense to install it.
And this is the loyalty of customers and more transactions, more Bank fee. By 2020, all offline points in Russia will be equipped with payment terminals for cashless and contactless payments. Each of them will be to pay touch credit card or mobile phone on the POS terminal (or some other device).
And the mobile app more or less every major Bank will also support the PayPass and PayWave. Most of the payments go into mobile phones. Technologies for this are many — the same terminals with NFC (not only by the standards of Visa and MasterCard), QR codes on stickers, tablet or cash register systems, Bluetooth Smart with geolocation and so on. All the same technology without problems penetrate in e-Commerce, which makes the traditional business of payment services, Internet-oriented, hopeless.
Internet payments will remain the big players and banks — alpha, Sberbank, Promsvyazbank, Tinkoff” and some other. And even them, to keep users, they will have to go beyond just payment services and to transform into a universal platform that simplifies the life of people. Russian market of payment services on the Internet will die, not really born.
Many of those who still never paid for shopping online, cash move from right to payment from a smartphone. Its clearer, easier and more convenient, besides, allows to pay for goods on receipt — all we love.
Read more: lean team