Co-owner of “Sovcombank” Sergey Khotimsk about why this concept of development is unlikely. Say that Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Alibaba, WeChat and other it giants will actually be the banks away from traditional bankers.
A few thoughts on this topic. Today the above companies are all immutable. But, as shown by long historical experience, the probability of bankruptcy one of these companies over the next 30 years is very high. Even if up to this point they have not banned to take deposits and make loans, that will occur at the time when companies with no regulations will remain in reserves. The government will either have to announce to people that their uninsured savings in the it company lost, or to go for bail-out (the forced transfer of deposits in the stock of an insolvent company to prevent its bankruptcy — vc.ru) at the expense of taxpayers.
In fact, banks are sources of emission of the money supply. That commercial banks, not the Central Bank, as is commonly thought. The Central Bank regulates the rules, but the main issue — that loans from commercial banks. If huge balances accumulated outside the banking system outside the regulated field, the credit crunch and the bubbles that always appear in different stages of the economic cycle, leave the government without tools.
Repeated efforts crises and recession. Undermine the concept of counter-cyclical regulation. The it giants not get your own be the largest creditors and not “fly” on the crises in full. Then, they are crises. Banks have accumulated huge expertise in risk management.
The gap from the other industries in management may lead not only to credit risk but also currency, market, interest, operational, legal, reputational, cyber, and others. “Disrupting”, focusing on convenience, not on the risk, easily, while the amount of potential losses are small relative to the volume of existing business. And then miracles do not happen — risk management will require in all that makes a Bank a Bank, including Institute tight public control. Thus, governments are at a fork.
It is easy to understand, in what way will Europe and Russia, not having, so to speak, the national it giants, claiming to be banks. The US and China have the privilege of choosing the strategy. Only time will tell.
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